The U.S.A. and the Middle East in the 21st Century

Events since the terrorists’ attacks of September 11, 2001, have dramatically and drastically changed the political environment in the Arab and Muslims worlds, a vast diverse region incorporating the band of nation-states with significant religious Muslim population that extends from western Africa to the southern Philippines, as well as Arab and Muslim communities and diasporas stretching throughout the globe.

The United States are concerned with three types of serious threats to U.S. national interests.

• Direct physical threats against American citizens and military/diplomatic installations
• Serious political destabilization of friendly nation-states in the Arab and Muslim worlds
• Significant growth of anti-American, anti-Western, and antidemocratic ideologies in the Middle East and in the wider Arab and Muslim Worlds.

Preventing direct threats against the various American interests is the aim of the global war on terrorism with the defeat of Al Qaeda and related terror networks the paramount U.S. national security priority. The Bush administration in 2002 in the “National Security Strategy of the United States of America” declared that the United States of America is combating a war against brutal terrorists of global reach. The enemy is not a single political regime, or government, or person or religion or political ideology. The main enemy is terrorism premeditated political motivated violence perpetrated against innocents.

Cooperation in fighting terrorism and its networks is therefore a very critical component of the U.S. diplomatic relations with the various Arab and Muslim countries, but it is not the only element. Beyond the problem of terrorism lies the crucial issue of the future socio-political shape and form of the Arab and Muslim worlds and whether these religious and political worlds will be amicable to U.S. interests, values, and democratic ideas.

Political destabilization of friendly but authoritarian nation-states poses a very serious and complex set of dilemmas and challenges. Statesmen, diplomats, and scholars of the realist school of thought, who directs and influences the U.S. policies and decision-making toward the Arab and Muslim worlds, valued regime stability nearly above democratic values and ideas.  At the end of the 1991 Gulf War, serious fear and concern of the strategic consequences of the political destabilization of Iraq informed the George Bush administration’s decision to stop short of toppling Saddam Hussein and to permit him to crush the Kurdish and Shiite revolts. For the following decade both the Bush and Clinton administrations had to live with the serious consequences of that military decision. Because of that dramatic geostrategic experience, some policymakers now support and vigorously promote that American national interest are sometimes better safeguarded or even protected by regime change in antithetical brutal authoritarian regimes. President George W. Bush faced that dilemma of regime change in Iraq and President Barrack Obama encounters that dilemma in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Syria with the emergence of the Arabic Spring.

Obviously in some cases, promote for regime change is clearly a suitable socio-political option. There is little question, for example, that most alternatives to the current suppressive Iranian theocratic government would create a government more respectful of the Iranian people’s political and human rights, less likely to pursue and finish with the development of nuclear weapons or to support or finance vicious terrorist groups or causes, and more favorable positioned toward cooperation with the American administration and other democratic countries. This specific policy questions relate to the cost-benefit calculus implicit in any set of United States military or diplomatic actions adopted to bolster and promote viable democratic change.

It is evident differentiating between political transitions from authoritarianism to democracy that can be expected to lead to more pluralistic and republic political regimes and those that probably that lead to more repressive and regressive political systems is more difficult in the case of friendly authoritarian nation-states. This demands a more fine-grained analysis of the relative strengths and long-term aims of the socio-political forces at play in the region.

The best-case political scenario in the process of democratization of friendly authoritarian countries assumes that a socio-political transition from authoritarianism, although in the beginning disruptive and difficult, will create a more democratic and benign political environment over the long term. Thus, a democratic or democratizing Arab and Muslim worlds would significantly reduce or even remove of the structural social and political causes of Islamic extremism and anti-Americanism.

Nonetheless, pushing political change in friendly authoritarian or dictatorial regimes could be significantly destabilizing in short term, specifically in the absence of democratic political alternatives and strong civil society institutions and values. The removal of the Shah of Iran is a very cautionary study case. Furthermore, Algeria is a story of democratic transition that in the end generated an Islamist electoral majority, but instead of directing the Algerian socio-political system toward more inclusive politics, it produced a military crackdown and a radical Islamist insurgency of significance and unprecedented violence. In Egypt the Mubarak administration’s tactics drove the political opposition into underground. In 2011, under the banner of the Arabic Spring the Mubarak regime collapsed. It is ambiguous if Egypt will become more democratic. In the Saudi Arabia, the most serious socio-political menace to the regime’s stability and survival comes from religious Islamic radicals supporting a more extreme version of the official religious/political ideology. Last but not least in Pakistan, an ambiguous ally in the U.S. counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategies, extreme religious Islamic groups threaten the fragile democracy.

It is evident that is extremely difficult in forecasting the consequences of regime change may generated from a failure to comprehend the growth of political ideologies drastically opposed to American national interests, values, democratic ideas, and policies. The American government has a difficult road ahead to promote democratic ideas in the Middle East and in the wider Arab and Muslim worlds and to persuade other American allies mainly in Europe to support that sensitive and important task ahead. One way is United States to sustain a significantly military force in the region that reflects the American commitments to her allies and her military interests. It is evident that America will be the sole catalyst for democratization in these sensitive aforementioned areas.

The outcome of the “war of ideas” in progress throughout the Muslim and Arab worlds is possibly to have significant consequences for the U.S. national interests in the region; nonetheless it is also extremely difficult for the American government to influence or alter Muslim ideas regarding the relations between the West and various countries in the Islamic World. Even pro-American governments wishing to work together with the U.S.A. on various important regional issues may be limited by domestic pressers and public perceptions. It is fundamentally and extremely difficult for a non-western power to influence or alter ideas and perceptions of Muslims about their religion or political affiliations. The historical evidence vividly illustrates that only Muslims themselves have the sole credibility to challenge or change the misuse of the Islamic religion by radicals or jihadist fighters. Thus, the American administration current and future have a serious and difficult task to tackle. The future will indicate the relations between U.S.A. and the Muslim and Arab worlds.

By Vassilios Damiras

Greece and the Financial Crisis of the 21st Century and its Global Implications

Greece faces the most severe financial crisis since her independence in 1832 from the then powerful Ottoman Empire. The main cause for this complicated and serious problem is a corrupt socio-economic and political system. Greece has a huge public sector with an uncontrollable spending. Between the years 1981 to 1991, public-sector debt in Greece rose at about 5 percent per year, going from 39.3 of the GDP to 116.3 percent and climbed more in 2000s without ending in side. Of this total, 98.6 percent is been attributed to public sector. Much of this debt was taken under the Panhellenic Socialist Party-PASOK to support its redistribution policies. Throughout the 1980s approximately 75 percent of the total was spent domestically. Under this spending, PASOK strengthened the client state in Greece.

The socialist Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou manipulated the full membership of Greece to the European Union (EU) and obtained grants and loans to promote his socialist policies. Constantine Mitsotakis and the conservative party New Democracy came to power in 1989 and from 1990 to 1993 they governed Greece without a coalition try to change the economic policies without success. The failure was due to the fact that the labor unions which controlled by PASOK and the Communist Party resisted any new financial policies. Moreover, many conservative politicians such as, Miltiades Evert did not believe in privatization as a way to improve the economic system, therefore refused to support this kind of new socio-economic policies. The main reason for this severe refusal was that Greek politicians did not want to lose the traditions of political patronage.

From 1993 to 2004 the socialist govern Greece again. From 2004 to 2009 the conservatives took the executive power once more. In 2009, the socialist returned to power. All these years, Greece continued to accumulate a huge public debt, despite the political promises of change. The main reason for the accumulation of debt was that the various socialist and conservative administrations wanted to satisfy the appetite of the public sector and sustain the client state, a modern and powerful Leviathan. This crisis led to the current financial catastrophe. George Papandreou the new socialist prime minster of Greece signed a memorandum with the triad, which is consisting by the International Monetary Fund, the European Bank, and the European Commission. The memorandum and follow up memorandums targeted to control Greece’s public debt and potential bankruptcy and guarantee repayment of the loans. In addition, the IMF and European representatives pressed their Greek counterparts for privatization and a smaller government. Nonetheless, these treaties introduced sever austerity measures and high taxation in the Greek society. The Greek people perceived these new financial measures as genocidal economics. Still the Greek government cannot control the spending or the debt because the political structure does not want to really change the socio-political system, thus executing a mass privatization and reducing the size of the government.

The only way for the Greek government to reduce the public borrowing requirement and reverse years of structural deficits within the public sector is through wholesale and dramatic reforms of tax laws and privatization. Taxation evasion in Greece has been of a national pastime. Public distrust can be considered the primary cause of such civic unmindedness. Greece, similar to other countries on the periphery, has instead depended to a great extent on indirect taxation.

Nonetheless, by examining the central government’s current revenue between the years 1974 to 2011, we can see that it heavily relies more and more on direct taxation as major means to collect taxes. This includes primarily income taxes and social security and its related taxes. Direct taxation was 46.2 and now has climb to 50 plus with additional taxes. The last tsunami of taxation was supported by the triad in order Greece to pay back the loans.

It is evident that the post-1974 economic and political system in Greece failed. The new Prime Minister Lukas Papadimos is a renowned banker in Greece, Europe, and U.S.A., who assisted the socialist Prime Minister Costas Simitis in the beginning of 2000s to manipulate the economic statistics and place Greece on the Euro zone. His economic philosophy is based on Keynesian economics. Now, he will lead a coalition of socialists and conservatives politicians plus technocrats. However, it is dubious under Papadimos leadership Greece can obtain a viable economy and be competitive again, because heavy taxation and slow movement of privatizations cannot create financial prosperity in Greece.

Confident that the new coalition government will succeed in its extreme and difficult task of creating economic and political stability in Greece, expressed by the former Prime Minister George Papandreou at the delivery ceremony of the Presidency of the Government at the prime ministerial mansion Maximos. The new Prime Minister Lukas Papadimos concurred that he and his administration have a difficult and challenging task ahead at home and abroad.

Greece needs to reduce the tax rate to ten percent and pass laws to fight tax evasion. Moreover, the government needs to privatize all the state owned business. Furthermore, the Greek administration needs to privatize the social security system and the health care system. It is imperative Greece to have a small and limited central government. Finally, the government should end any economic intervention with the excuse to save economy. These new financial conditions will allow foreign and local investment in Greek proper. It is time for Greece to adopt a true capitalist philosophy. Under that philosophy the Greek people can prosper and experience economic liberty and individual freedom.

Greece is located in a highly sensitive geostrategic region. It is imperative to sustain an economic and political tranquility and prosperity. Especially, now with the emergence of the Arab Spring, this has generated a tsunami of turmoil and political instability in the eastern Mediterranean area. Specifically, the Greek geostrategic environment is increasingly complex and extremely challenging. Successive political, military, and economic crises in the Balkans and Middle East have made this crystal clear. Evolving EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) geopolitical and geoeconomic strategies reflect the primary concerns about regional stability and economic development on the troubled European periphery. It is evident the progressive “Europeanization” of Greece is a transforming political, social, and economic development with ambiguous results as far. Greeks have resisted this modernization process or have misused it to benefit political patronage.

The U.S.A. can play an important role in the aforementioned process and also assist the Greek government obtain an economic and political stability. The American government needs to sustain a strong political, military, and economic influence and presence in Greece and in the wider region. This new American policy can be the catalyst for a new epoch of economic development and political modernization in this troubled region. United States can become the beacon of financial stability and democratic values for Greece and the rest of eastern Mediterranean basin and protect the region from geostrategic predators such as, Russia, China, and Iran. Without a doubt, the future will show if Greece survive the challenging times and financial crisis.

The latest austere economic measures have created a new era of uncertainty in Greece. Various ordinary Greeks and prominent economic scholars in Athens and Thessaloniki argue that these new strict financial measures destroy astuteness and inventiveness. Moreover, in major Greek cities such as, Athens, Thessaloniki, Volos, and Patras forces of obstruction and destruction similar to Egypt and Lebanon try to create a communist/anarchic state. If that happens that will be the end of the Greek spirit and any hope of recovery will lost forever. Also, a chaotic Greek state will be detrimental for the regional and global political and economic stability.

Greece needs to adopt a capitalist philosophy based on classical liberal ideas and beliefs. Only then Greeks have the possibility to experience a new golden age similar to Ancient Athens under Pericles. The future will show which way Greeks will go. Finally, Greece needs to strengthen their economic ties with the U.S.A. and Israel. A new era of strong relations can be the catalyst of a Greek economic recovery.

By Vassilios Damiras

World War 3 in the balance???

This is something we at Talon have been saying for quite sometime. The possibility of a nuclear war or even a war based on gaining nuclear power, is going to be quite conceivable. Our country has seen this coming for a long time and we all know that Israel will not sit idly by and watch their number one enemy gain nuclear bombs, and not do anything about it. Join us tonite on Talon Radio www.blogtalkradio/talon-consulting as we discuss the possibilities of War and World War. As well as touching base on immigration.

Immigration Amnesty at it again!

By SWA:  (Stand With Arizona) Exert By Robert M Brandt

The inmates are running the asylum. This Administration has served notice on every illegal alien invader across America: do not be afraid – you are above the law.

Eleven illegal aliens who claimed ICE agents “violated their rights” in 2007 raids on their New Haven neighborhood have won a $350,000 settlement from the U.S. government, which also agreed to halt deportation proceedings against the plaintiffs, their attorneys said Tuesday.

New Haven is American’s most notorious “sanctuary city”- the first in the nation to offer identification cards to illegal immigrants, and critics including the mayor have contended the federal sweep was retaliation for the ID program — a charge denied by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, saying planning for the raid began the year before.

The settlement appears to be the largest ever paid by the United States in a lawsuit over residential immigration raids, and the first to include compensation as well as immigration relief, according to Mark Pedulla, a Yale law student who was involved in representing the plaintiffs.

“They hope to be able to offer an example of what can happen when you stand up for your rights,” Pedulla said.

“Rights”? These are foreign nationals, residing in the United States in violation of Federal immigration laws. They have the “right” to be detained and deported.

Ross Feinstein, an ICE spokesman, said the settlement is not intended as an admission of liability on the part of the U.S. government.

“The government is settling in order to avoid the additional time and expense of further litigation,” Feinstein said.

When does the Federal government EVER do that? The Feds have unlimited legal resources. The Bush Administration fought this case tooth and nail on behalf of ICE and the DOJ. It is obvious that the Obama crowd wanted to send a message with this “settlement” and amnesty: illegals aliens are a new “protected class”, and that only the illegals they deem unwelcome, will be prosecuted. the rest may stay.

Here is the backstory of what happened in 2007:

The plaintiffs were among roughly 30 people arrested on the raid in the early morning hours of June 6, 2007.

The men argued the agents drew their weapons, forced them out of bed and frightened young children in some of the homes. They claimed the federal agency was retaliating against New Haven, which has a reputation as a “sanctuary city” for its embrace of illegal immigrants, and that they were targeted solely because of their Latino appearance.

“I remember everything that happened to me that morning as if it were yesterday,” plaintiff Edinson Yangua Calva said. “There are things I haven’t been able to get over, it is something that stays with you forever.”

If I commit a crime, and am arrested in my home, am I absolved of that crime if law enforcement agents “frighten” my children? This is the theater of the absurd.

In June 2009, federal Immigration Judge Michael Straus ruled that agents violated the constitutional rights of four immigrants in the raids. Straus said the ICE agents went into the immigrants’ homes without warrants, probable cause or their consent, and he put a stop to deportation proceedings against the four defendants, whose names were not released. Five of the plaintiffs were still facing deportation proceedings, but those will be halted as part of the settlement agreement, Pedulla said.

So why didn’t the government appeal this ruling? After all the 8th Circuit Appeals Court just last month ruled that illegal aliens do not have the legal right to bear arms because of their criminal invader status. And immigration judges are not like other Federal judges, and can actually be overruled by the Justice Department. No such action was taken here because the Obama DOJ wants to grant amnesty to as many illegals as possible, and reward sanctuary cities for the lawlessness.

New Haven is the biggest sanctuary city in the U.S. Remember our post in December regarding New Haven Mayor John DeStefano’s plan to extend voting rights to illegal aliens – a clear violation of the 15th Amendment. He also has prohibited police from asking people about their immigration status and spoken out against Secure Communities, which uses fingerprints collected in local jails to identify illegal immigrants who have been arrested.

But instead of suing cities like New Haven (and San Francisco, and Cook County, IL, etc) for violating Federal immigration law, this Administration is instead suing states like Arizona and Alabama for enforcing those laws.

Share this story with everyone you know (using the links at top) to demonstrate loud and clear – to any friends and family who are on the fence regarding the 2012 election – how this Administration is hell-bent on executing the lawless, La Raza agenda.

Sign of the times? Ready to strike Iran if needed? (By Yahoo)

MANAMA, Bahrain (AP) — The top U.S. Navy official in the Gulf said Sunday he takes Iran’s military capabilities seriously but insists his forces are prepared to confront any Iranian aggression in the region.

Vice Adm. Mark Fox, commander of the 5th Fleet, told reporters at the naval force’s Bahrain headquarters that the Navy has “built a wide range of potential options to give the president” and is “ready today” to confront any hostile action by Tehran.

He did not outline specifically how the Navy might answer an Iranian strike or an effort to shut the entrance to the Persian Gulf, though any response would likely involve the two U.S. aircraft carriers and other warships cruising the waters off Iran.

“We’ve developed very precise and lethal weapons that are very effective, and we’re prepared,” Fox said. “We’re just ready for any contingency.”

Faced with tightening Western sanctions, Iranian officials have stepped up threats to close the Strait of Hormuz if the country’s oil exports are blocked. A fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the narrow waterway, which is only about 30 miles (50 kilometers) across at its narrowest point.

Iran and Oman share control of the waterway, but it is considered an international strait, meaning free transit passage is guaranteed under international law.

Iran’s army chief, Gen. Ataollah Salehi, early last month warned an American warship not to return to the Gulf shortly after the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis and another vessel left. Another carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, entered the Gulf without incident on Jan. 22.

Fox acknowledged that Iran’s military is “capable of striking a blow” against American forces in the Gulf, particularly using unconventional means such as small attack boats or mines laid along shipping lanes.

“We’re not bulletproof. There are people that can take a swipe at us,” Fox said.

But he added that he has reminded officers under his command that they “have a right and an obligation of self defense” if attacked.

The admiral’s comments echo those of other Western officials, who say they will respond swiftly to any Iranian attempt to shut the Strait of Hormuz.

Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told CBS’ “Face the Nation” last month that Iranian forces could block shipping through the strait “for a period of time,” but added, “We can defeat that.”

In his briefing in the Bahraini capital Manama, Fox voiced support for the tiny island nation that has hosted U.S. Navy vessels for decades.

“They are a long-term partner and a very important piece of our ability to do our mission,” he said of the country.

Bahrain has been rocked by protests led by the country’s majority Shiites against the country’s Sunni monarchy that erupted in force a year ago. Street battles between security forces and protesters still flare up almost daily in the predominantly Shiite villages around the capital.

Fox’s command encompasses the bulk of the Middle East, including the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and a large swath of the Indian Ocean along the east African coast. There are about 25,000 sailors under his command.

Talon Exert:

Our military cannot afford another war. We have our military men and women strung out all over the world and here we go trying to get involved in another facade of events. I am going to keep this short and simple. UNLEASH ISREAL and Iran and most of our middle eastern problems will go away.

Talon Radio Alive and Kicking!!

Talon Radio had a huge audience last Friday with the introduction of my Co Host Vassilios Damiras.  The show catapulted into the BTR rating with a very good 30 minute show.  Some of the topics that were discussed were, terrorism, border control, the Greek crisis, and security issues within the United States.   The show became a fast success and the chat room was full and the live listeners were in the hundreds.

The show will go live on a regular Schedule starting June 8th at 1 pm PST or 4PM EST.  Talon Radio will have 30 minute shows, until it builds the listner base, and than will goto 2 hour slots, which will produce guests, and callers.  Thank you for your support and in case you miss the show, you can still catch it on podcast by visiting this link.

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/talon-consulting

http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001385627685   (Facebook page, fell free to ad us)

Thank you and hope to see you on future shows.

Talon Radio coming in June 2011 to BTR

Talon Strategic Consulting is releasing a radio show on www.blogtalkradio.com/talon-consulting   The show will be a weekly view of the disasters and the current events that coincide with the Talon Agenda.  Also we will have updates on the bloggs and from time to time guests.

Please goto Blog talk radio and register an account so you can listen in when the show goes live.  The shows will go live for 30 mins every Friday at 3 pm EST 6 PM PST.  We will keep you up to date as to any new news coming our way about special guests.  You can also ad us a friend and listen to the shows via podcast.  So dont miss out on your special intake of how things really are.

U.S.A. and a Chemical-Nuclear Free Globe

In the post Cold War era the United States started an extensive and very expensive program to reduce or eliminate chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons (CBRN). Several important factors underpinned their policies. First, the reduced military menace from the former Soviet Union had increased the relative importance of lesser powers, especially those armed with weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Second, international, political and technological trends had increased the threat to international security from proliferation. Third, new opportunities were opening for enhancing current international proliferation programmers. Washington has spent close to a billion dollars on CBRN nonproliferation projects mainly focused on the former Soviet republics. Cooperation was the end product of extensive diplomatic negotiations.

 

After five years of negotiations between U.S. and Kazakh officials, a U.S. Air Force C-17 cargo plane transported samples of bubonic and pneumonic plague bacteria to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Both sides also agreed that U.S. and Kazakh scientists will now study the bacteria with the main goal of developing and producing new scientific methods to diagnose and treat the plague.

 

This specific shipment was part of a larger cooperative biological threat reduction program between the United States and former Soviet republics in Central Asia. This program also targeted diseases that occur naturally in the region which could also be exploited by terrorists. Since the end of the Cold War a number of reports have been published indicating that terrorist groups have shown an interest in creating a dirty bomb to attack various economic, political, and military installations throughout the West. U.S. policies are therefore calibrated to eradicate these activities. Whilst the bulk of these projects are funded and administered by the Department of Defense’s (DOD) Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) Program, many other Government departments contribute to the initiatives.

 

Created in 1991, the CTR initially focused on the nuclear weapons inherited by Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, as well as Russian materiel and facilities. Washington wanted to ensure that these weapons did not fall into the hands of rogue states or terrorist groups. After the successful development denuclearization program and with the bulk of the most pressing Russian nuclear threats under control, the CTR turned to problems posed by biological weapons.  The shift illustrated the increasing importance that states place on infectious disease surveillance to international security.

 

Between 1998 and 2007, the U.S. government invested more than $400 million in biological and chemical threat reduction programs throughout the former Soviet Union. During this period Kazakhstan received $107.4 million and Uzbekistan $78.7 million respectively.  Since 1992, the DoD and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) have jointly developed projects to improve the security of Russia’s nuclear weapons as they are dismantled, transported, and stored. Projects have included the delivery to Russia of armoured blankets, security upgrade kits for railcars,

emergency response equipment, and super containers used during transport. Ongoing Weapons Protection, Control, and Accounting (WPC&A) projects include upgrading security at storage sites, a computerised weapons stockpile system and exchanging unclassified information about warheads. Between 1992 and 1997, the DoD allocated $116 million of CTR funds for WPC&A programs. By 2000, total WPC&A funding had reached $293.1 million, and the program’s total cost is expected to reach $967.7 million by FY2007. By the year 2011 it reached close to a billion dollars.

 

As home to the Soviet Union’s biological warfare program, the Central Asian republics were a particular focus of the United States’ attention. Stepnogorsk in northern Kazakhstan, for example, was home to a biological weapons facility capable of producing 300 tonnes of anthrax per year.  A plant for the manufacture of biological weapons was constructed on a site close to Stepnogorsk. In late 1990, researchers tested the Marburg virus on animals in special explosion-test chambers.

Throughout the Cold War, Soviet scientists also extensively tested biological weapons on Vozrozhdeniye Island in the Aral Sea and on Ustyurt Plateau in the Uzbek steppe. The Vozrozhdeniye Island test site was part of the older Soviet biological warfare program. When the program eventually abandoned the island it left behind caches of anthrax buried underground alongside other dangerous microorganisms buried in the soil. The newly-independent Central Asian republics were unaware of the activities that took place inside facilities of the Soviet biological and chemical program. The resources that the Central Asian governments could allocate to conversion activities were extremely limited, making CTR funding crucial. The United States and Kazakhstan first signed a cooperative nuclear and chemical reduction agreement in 1993.  A similar agreement was extended to Uzbekistan in 2001.

 

Under the CTR agreement funding was allocated for the dismantling of biological and chemical facilities like Stepnogorsk and Vozrohdeniye Island. By 2000, three sites at Stepnogorsk were destroyed with weapons production and testing buildings dismantled by 2007. In addition, CTR funds also significantly improved the physical protection, safety, and security of the facilities that housed biological and chemical-agents. The Kazakh facility was also the focus of efforts to redirect defence scientific resources to civilian programs. Currently, Central Asian scientists are working with U.S. counterparts to strengthen detection, diagnosis and responses to the outbreak of infectious diseases and biological weapons attacks. For example, a significant amount of funding was given to support Kazakh research of Congo-Crimean hemorrhagic fever and anthrax.  The CTR program also funds Uzbek biological and chemical scientists working on the mapping of anthrax, plague, and tularemia, as well as the surveillance of human and animal brucellosis.

 

Currently a comprehensive study of Vozrozhdeniye Island is funded by the United States and administered by the Uzbek Centre for Prevention and Quarantine. Kazakh and Uzbek scientists monitor the island for the plague and other diseases that might have been introduced to the island during Soviet programmers. The dramatic shrinking of the Aral Sea in recent years further exacerbates the proliferation risks if pathogens remain on Vozrozhdeniye Island. Birds and rodents are potential carriers of dangerous diseases to the mainland, as are people who visit the island. However, conditions have improved with the destruction of biological weapons facilities on the island followed by the decontamination of Uzbek territory that housed Soviet facilities.

In 2011, the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency introduced the Caspian Sea Maritime Proliferation Prevention (Azerbaijan). The project supports and assists the development of a comprehensive capability to detect and interdict CBRN weapons and materiel along Azerbaijan’s maritime border on the Caspian Sea. It provides surveillance and advanced detection equipment as well as the upgrading of existing naval vessels and facilities.

By Vassilios Damiras

Supervolcano at Yellowstone can bring catastrophic end of the world scenario

The gigantic underground plume of partly molten rock that feeds the Yellowstone supervolcano might be bigger than previously thought, a new image suggests.

The study says nothing about the chances of a cataclysmic eruption at Yellowstone, but it provides scientists with a valuable new perspective on the vast and deep reservoir of fiery material that feeds such eruptions, the last of which occurred more than 600,000 years ago. [Related: Infographic - The Geology of Yellowstone.]

Earlier measurements of the plume were produced by using seismic waves — the waves generated by earthquakes — to create a picture of the underground region. The new picture was produced by examining the Yellowstone plume’s electrical conductivity, which is generated by molten silicate rocks and hot briny water that is naturally present and mixed in with partly molten rock.

University of Utah

“It’s a totally new and different way of imaging and looking at the volcanic roots of Yellowstone,” said study co-author Robert B. Smith, professor emeritus and research professor of geophysics at the University of Utah, and a coordinating scientist of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

Ancient eruptions

Almost 17 million years ago, the deep plume of partly molten rock known as the Yellowstone hot spot first breached the surface in an eruption near what is now the Oregon-Idaho-Nevada border.

As North America drifted slowly southwest over the hot spot, there were more than 140 gargantuan caldera eruptions — the largest kind of eruption on Earth — along a northeast-trending path that is now Idaho’s Snake River Plain.

The hot spot finally reached Yellowstone about 2 million years ago, yielding three huge caldera eruptions about 2 million, 1.3 million and 642,000 years ago.

Two of the eruptions blanketed half of North America with volcanic ash, producing 2,500 times and 1,000 times more ash than the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington state. Smaller eruptions occurred at Yellowstone in between the big blasts and as recently as 70,000 years ago.

Underground images

Smith said the geoelectric and seismic images of the Yellowstone plume look somewhat different because “we are imaging slightly different things.” Seismic images highlight materials such as molten or partly molten rock that slow seismic waves, while the geoelectric image is sensitive to briny fluids that conduct electricity.

Seismic images of the plume made by Smith in 2009 showed the plume of molten rock dips downward from Yellowstone at a 60-degree angle and extends 150 miles (240 kilometers) west-northwest to a point at least 410 miles (660 km) under the Montana-Idaho border — as far as seismic imaging could “see.”

The new electrical conductivity images show the conductive part of the plume dipping more gently, at an angle of perhaps 40 degrees to the west, and extending perhaps 400 miles (640 km) from east to west. The geoelectric image can “see” to a depth of only 200 miles (320 km).

The lesser tilt of the geoelectric plume image raises the possibility that the seismically imaged plume, shaped somewhat like a tilted tornado, may be enveloped by a broader, underground sheath of partly molten rock and liquids, Zhdanov and Smith say.

“It’s a bigger size” in the geoelectric picture, Smith said. “We can infer there are more fluids” than shown by seismic images. Despite differences, he said, “this body that conducts electricity is in about the same location with similar geometry as the seismically imaged Yellowstone plume.”

The new study has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, which plans to publish it within the next few weeks.

Talon Excerpt:

We have known about this volcano for quite sometime. It is labeled as a “supervolcanoe“ by the US Geological Survey. This type of volcano can be very hazardous to the Earth as a whole, if and when it erupts.  It has been stated that it is dormant right now, however it has erupted in the past and it is just a matter of time WHEN it will erupt again.

The way we look at the possible scenarios for this volcano varies by the erupt-ability of the lava and the gases it will spew into the air. The Devastation that it will cause will be in one of THE worst possible scenarios that the earth will endure.  Pollution from gases, ash, and lava will put the air quality to nearly zero for any living breathing creature.   The huge cloud that will come forth will block out the sun for months if not years, and the force of the volcano will be that of a nuclear weapon that has 100 thousand times the strength of detonation.  This is for real, and this can and will happen very soon.  This coupled with the earthquakes that will erupt along with it, could very well be the beginning of the end of the United Stated as we know it.  This will not only be an economically and life changing event, this catastrophic event will change the face of the earth for many many years to come.

The gigantic underground plume of partly molten rock that feeds the Yellowstone supervolcano might be bigger than previously thought, a new image suggests.

The study says nothing about the chances of a cataclysmic eruption at Yellowstone, but it provides scientists with a valuable new perspective on the vast and deep reservoir of fiery material that feeds such eruptions, the last of which occurred more than 600,000 years ago. [Related: Infographic - The Geology of Yellowstone.]

Earlier measurements of the plume were produced by using seismic waves — the waves generated by earthquakes — to create a picture of the underground region. The new picture was produced by examining the Yellowstone plume’s electrical conductivity, which is generated by molten silicate rocks and hot briny water that is naturally present and mixed in with partly molten rock.

University of Utah

“It’s a totally new and different way of imaging and looking at the volcanic roots of Yellowstone,” said study co-author Robert B. Smith, professor emeritus and research professor of geophysics at the University of Utah, and a coordinating scientist of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory.

Ancient eruptions

Almost 17 million years ago, the deep plume of partly molten rock known as the Yellowstone hot spot first breached the surface in an eruption near what is now the Oregon-Idaho-Nevada border.

As North America drifted slowly southwest over the hot spot, there were more than 140 gargantuan caldera eruptions — the largest kind of eruption on Earth — along a northeast-trending path that is now Idaho’s Snake River Plain.

The hot spot finally reached Yellowstone about 2 million years ago, yielding three huge caldera eruptions about 2 million, 1.3 million and 642,000 years ago.

Two of the eruptions blanketed half of North America with volcanic ash, producing 2,500 times and 1,000 times more ash than the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington state. Smaller eruptions occurred at Yellowstone in between the big blasts and as recently as 70,000 years ago.

Smith said the geoelectric and seismic images of the Yellowstone plume look somewhat different because “we are imaging slightly different things.” Seismic images highlight materials such as molten or partly molten rock that slow seismic waves, while the geoelectric image is sensitive to briny fluids that conduct electricity.

Seismic images of the plume made by Smith in 2009 showed the plume of molten rock dips downward from Yellowstone at a 60-degree angle and extends 150 miles (240 kilometers) west-northwest to a point at least 410 miles (660 km) under the Montana-Idaho border — as far as seismic imaging could “see.”

The new electrical conductivity images show the conductive part of the plume dipping more gently, at an angle of perhaps 40 degrees to the west, and extending perhaps 400 miles (640 km) from east to west. The geoelectric image can “see” to a depth of only 200 miles (320 km).

The lesser tilt of the geoelectric plume image raises the possibility that the seismically imaged plume, shaped somewhat like a tilted tornado, may be enveloped by a broader, underground sheath of partly molten rock and liquids, Zhdanov and Smith say.

“It’s a bigger size” in the geoelectric picture, Smith said. “We can infer there are more fluids” than shown by seismic images. Despite differences, he said, “this body that conducts electricity is in about the same location with similar geometry as the seismically imaged Yellowstone plume.”

The new study has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, which plans to publish it within the next few weeks.